WEATHER: All rain for ACA

While ACA was never much in the game for accumulating snow from this next system, it's now totally out of the game.  The incoming rains should help improve the likes of our ice-packed driveways and side roads, for which we'll all be thankful.


I was musing over this brewing storm while I was at work the end of last week, and it looked very nasty even as it started to take shape.  The expected snowfall from this storm is the biggest yet this winter, excepting earlier west coast storms, with a pretty large midwestern area pushing for 18"+ of snow.  (Click on the pic to enlarge)

forecast graphic valid Wed. AM

For ye travelers, Boston looks to get hit fairly hard, as well, but the farther south you go down I-95 the more rain mixes in.  DC and Philly are spared, under current forecast paths.  If there is any light snow to accumulate in NC it will be on the wrap-around backside of the system, and relegated only to our far northern mountains.  None is in the ACA forecast, though cold air returns by the end of the week.


bob

WEATHER: Wed. afternoon update

Though temps down to 34 from 37 degrees earlier, we've been blessed with above-freezing temperatures after a night of good rainfall.  Snowbursts have been minimal here, but snowing to beat the band in the Smokies (441 is closed through the gap) and from Max Patch northeastward.  There is one last heavy push of snow in east TN that may well push far enough to reach us later this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, that will be it for accumulation potential.


Fine with me.  Driving out late this afternoon for Charlotte work so may not be around to post reports should it get snowing heavily.  The more time passes that we're in this dry slot, the greater reduction in snow potential.


For more good news, get ready for what will be great winter weekend weather!


bob

WEATHER update: TUE-WED

35 degrees as I type this just before 7am...I'll take it!


While ACA is under a Winter Storm Watch, it's for accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon and evening. Tuesday's precipitation will be mostly rain, with some periods of sleet and snow mixing in, but even overnight it's supposed to be mainly rain, with temps staying above freezing.  Snow is supposed to kick in late Wednesday morning, closer to noon, and keep going through the evening and tailing off overnight, with accumulating snow down into the valleys by late afternoon.


Models I follow both are sitting on a 1-3" snowfall.  My original call for ACA was 2-6".  The WS Watch is looking for 3-5" above 3500 feet, more on the higher peaks along the TN border.  And this is for Wednesday, not any earlier.


Could be worse...I see heavy snow is once again forecast for the northeast from Providence to Boston, up to a foot and a half AGAIN.  Ouch.


bob

SNOW: Monday AFTERNOON update

This is VERY short...while I'm not making a decision yet, I thought you'd like to know what I've seen this afternoon that is most interesting.  GSP, the weather service office that controls our forecasts, has gone with the "majority of rain" scenario for ACA and NOT the snow...even overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  Boy, would I love that, to get rid of some of our snow and ice pack.  As a result, accumulations from this system are minimized greatly.


Even so, if there is air cold enough to support snow in the higher elevations, snow amounts would be heavy...but the "WAA" or "Warm-Air-Advection" the forecasts are leaning towards keep the freezing line out of the mountains and well to the northwest.  This has been in the models for days, and probably why a few model runs kept snow totals 1" and less.


SOOOoooooo...I will wait and mull, but wanted to post this info as it was significant for planning purposes.  A very minor temperature swing downwards would cause a major problem, so just keep that in mind.  Posting info for what it's worth at the moment.


bob

SNOW: Monday AM update

~7am   The dusting of snow we got overnight might be a little slick in spots, so just be careful.  Temps will warm and some sun should come out later....oops, forgot, a lot of us don't get direct winter sun!  :-)


The problem with this whole incoming system is what the temperatures are going to do.  There will be the moisture, so it's a matter of how much rain mixes in...or not.  Best onset for troublesome weather will be Tuesday afternoon, with the biggest concern of what falls overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  The timing is the same as it has been.


forecast storm totals (through Wed.)
NAM  2-5"
GFS   4-8" (has run 8-12" twice)


Will update later this evening with any changes.
bob

SNOW TUE-WED: Calling off the dogs?

This is the most confounding storm yet this season for us.  For a few weeks, now, there has been as high a level of uncertainty and disagreement between models and runs for just about everything.  More flip-flopping than a striped bass in the bottom of a boat after being caught. Within the past 24 hours alone models have ranged from 6-8" to recent runs of less than 1" for all of the mountains.  Go figure. 


Will keep my gut call for a 2-6" storm total (higher amounts for higher elevation) thinking for ACA for now.  I have a hard time buying the trends that take snow out of the forecast, though.


First, any precipitation Monday would be light and inconsequential.  The best window for precipitation would be Tuesday afternoon, and an even better chance overnight into early Wednesday morning, tailing off Wednesday. That will be the best chance for problems to develop as temps will be at their coldest.  If there are going to be road issues for us it will be later Tuesday and especially by Wednesday morning.  


The bigger 'IF' is that if this system doesn't pull together, and we DON'T get the overnight period of heavier precipitation Tue. into Wed., then this will be a mole hill and not a mountain of a forecast to deal with.


May update tonight, Monday AM at the latest.


bob

WEATHER update: MON-WED

Saturday AM


GREATLY heartened to see a significant trend (and agreement) in the models that continue to poo-poo this next system, which would start later in the day Monday and last maybe into Wednesday morning (if there are to be travel woes in ACA it would start early Tuesday).  The area of low pressure driving the storm simply doesn't appear to be able to form until it gets to the Delmarva Peninsula (east of DC).  And yet...and yet, there is still that possibility that this could all change on a dime for something bigger, so not letting my guard down yet.


While we'll have some snow, there isn't much moisture to be had, and without the low forming there won't be any pumped in from the Gulf and Atlantic to help out.  Fine with me.  Models are running from a dusting to maybe 3", but that's it.  There was the one (and only one) ominous GFS run with the heavy amounts, but it has totally backed off of that idea for now (famous last words...!).


For any of you traveling afar, this storm could make a huge mess of things around the Philadelphia area, which could easily affect airports from the DC area through New York....not sure the storm hugs the coast long enough to reach Boston, but Philly is in a GFS-projected 14-18" snow storm starting Tuesday going through Wednesday.


On a more local level, forecasts for the NC Foothills and Piedmont are for wintry mix to crank up later in the day Tuesday, and maybe turning to all snow overnight into Wednesday morning before ending.  The problem for almost all of us are the marginally freezing temperatures.  A forecast that's all snow is better dealt with than a storm that has freezing rain and sleet mixing in with snow.  Storm totals aren't being forecast yet, and I doubt they'd be impressive on any level...but throw ANYthing icy into the equation and you create Headache Central for travel.


Will reassess Sunday AM and post info.


bob