Saturday AM
GREATLY heartened to see a significant trend (and agreement) in the models that continue to poo-poo this next system, which would start later in the day Monday and last maybe into Wednesday morning (if there are to be travel woes in ACA it would start early Tuesday). The area of low pressure driving the storm simply doesn't appear to be able to form until it gets to the Delmarva Peninsula (east of DC). And yet...and yet, there is still that possibility that this could all change on a dime for something bigger, so not letting my guard down yet.
While we'll have some snow, there isn't much moisture to be had, and without the low forming there won't be any pumped in from the Gulf and Atlantic to help out. Fine with me. Models are running from a dusting to maybe 3", but that's it. There was the one (and only one) ominous GFS run with the heavy amounts, but it has totally backed off of that idea for now (famous last words...!).
For any of you traveling afar, this storm could make a huge mess of things around the Philadelphia area, which could easily affect airports from the DC area through New York....not sure the storm hugs the coast long enough to reach Boston, but Philly is in a GFS-projected 14-18" snow storm starting Tuesday going through Wednesday.
On a more local level, forecasts for the NC Foothills and Piedmont are for wintry mix to crank up later in the day Tuesday, and maybe turning to all snow overnight into Wednesday morning before ending. The problem for almost all of us are the marginally freezing temperatures. A forecast that's all snow is better dealt with than a storm that has freezing rain and sleet mixing in with snow. Storm totals aren't being forecast yet, and I doubt they'd be impressive on any level...but throw ANYthing icy into the equation and you create Headache Central for travel.
Will reassess Sunday AM and post info.
bob
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