This is the most confounding storm yet this season for us. For a few weeks, now, there has been as high a level of uncertainty and disagreement between models and runs for just about everything. More flip-flopping than a striped bass in the bottom of a boat after being caught. Within the past 24 hours alone models have ranged from 6-8" to recent runs of less than 1" for all of the mountains. Go figure.
Will keep my gut call for a 2-6" storm total (higher amounts for higher elevation) thinking for ACA for now. I have a hard time buying the trends that take snow out of the forecast, though.
First, any precipitation Monday would be light and inconsequential. The best window for precipitation would be Tuesday afternoon, and an even better chance overnight into early Wednesday morning, tailing off Wednesday. That will be the best chance for problems to develop as temps will be at their coldest. If there are going to be road issues for us it will be later Tuesday and especially by Wednesday morning.
The bigger 'IF' is that if this system doesn't pull together, and we DON'T get the overnight period of heavier precipitation Tue. into Wed., then this will be a mole hill and not a mountain of a forecast to deal with.
May update tonight, Monday AM at the latest.
bob
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