Monday, February 16, 2015

WARNING "UPDATE" @ NOON

3.0" at 6pm at the end of Staymon
---------------------------------------------
Haywood schools let out at 10am, but western NC overall has been in a huge dry slot for many hours.  Soon enough, moisture will fill in and wintry weather will commence, but here are my thoughts given the changes....

The parent "low" pressure has tracked 75 miles north of forecast.  Minimal distance, huge ramifications.  I'd lower snow accumulations and add more sleet and freezing rain scenario as the nighttime progresses. Snow starts, then the gloppy mix. The NAM continues the 1-2" snow total, and the GFS is holding strong to the 6-8" of snow, but the big snow totals look to be in the Smokies, Balsams, and the Roan Highlands.

The Western NC dry slot will collapse this afternoon.  Temps have gone above freezing early, but they will be falling and precipitation will be falling, as well.  The favored precip type after initial snow will now go to sleet and freezing rain, which is nasty because so little amounts can cause big travel issues.  Where this storm was one for big snow totals, that won't happen with the low going more north.  Ice is the Great Equalizer, though, and nobody drives safely on ice.  Now it's about ice accumulations, so it seems.  I'll update as I see needed....

Tuesday dry, but MUCH colder air coming in with a secondary front.  Lowest I've recorded here in 6 years is minus 9, and we'll give that a run for the money Thursday morning.  Ugh....


Bob

5 comments:

  1. 2.0" of wet snow at the end of Staymon, but precipitation has switched fully over to sleet. The icing is a big issue for many in the region from here on out overnight.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ...and now back over to snow, but temp holding now at 32. We're in for a mess...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Richard just drove up Apple Creek Rd about 1/2 hour ago and it was snow covered all the way up with no tracks in it. He said at that point the driving was okay as long as he took it slow (we do have AWD) but then when he got to our place and went past to back into our driveway the car started sliding quite a bit. He was able to just barely pull into the driveway but then couldn't back up because of the ice on the driveway. By the time he changed his shoes to boots to walk up from the car what was coming down was more like ice pellets than snow and now it seems to be is a mix. And we can now hardly see the tracks where he was sliding around. So I'd say a great evening to stay home indeed....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Amazing to check data all around ACA as we are an exception with the snow I'm getting at the end of Staymon. 3.0 inches now and it's coming down nicely with only a little sleet, which most other locations are getting. 10 degrees colder in Asheville area, and I'm flat-lined at 32. Fascinating but complex storm system...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Apple Creek Road has a 1" coating here at the bottom (3,100'). Only 2 vehicles have ventured out. Have not seen the plower yet.

    The snow started around noon yesterday. Transitioned to sleet then rain. Temperature spiked well above freezing before midnight. Now back in the 20s. Yard is white and skylights are covered but no real accumulation.

    ReplyDelete