WINTER STORM WARNING

Yay for the warmer Tuesday afternoon temps to help with road melting and drying out after our plowing.  The next snow maker is poised to our SW to come right up the Carolina coast tonight and be a big snow producer....but the big question is, "Who gets the dumping?"  Unless that low changes course to the west some, it's not ACA.

While close to us, the 7-12" should set up shop south and east of ACA, closer to the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment and Foothills N/W of I-85 in SC/NC.  My models have been solid now for several runs, one 4-5" the other 5-7" (except for the 1am run today: 6-8").  I'm posting the graphic of the latter mainly because it shows that heavier banding E/SE of ACA....I think it best represents what is expected to take place.

NAM run 1am Wednesday (click to enlarge)

TIMING:  Warning in effect from 4pm today through 7a Thursday.  It's a done deal by daybreak. Snow was originally going to get heavy around 8-9p, but that may happen a bit earlier, by late afternoon.  I'll be playing it by 'eye' as I'll be out and about then.

AMOUNTS:  Going to hold ACA in a 4-6" total, which is plenty, but not as heavy as others will get. (7pm update...above 3500' may go 6-8"). Of course, with our elevations from 2800' to 4000',  there could be higher amounts higher up.  Too, temps won't be that far below freezing, so the snow will be wetter, which always increases that chance some may loose power.  I do think someone in the Carolinas will pick up 12", so will be curious to see where the heavy banding sets up shop.

Should the low track a tad west, we get more.  Should it track a tad east, we get a little less.  Thankfully we don't have arctic temps plowing in behind this like we had last week. So batten down the hatches as Snow-Mageddon (NOT!) descends upon us.


Bob