The winds are already a howlin' in the chilled sunshine, and overnight wind chills will be dangerously cold here. A strong cold front is inbound, and really for the first time this winter I'm expecting travel headaches in ACA. Our 3" Thanksgiving Day quickly melted and wasn't a big deal, but with this cold and associated moisture, the fun starts late today.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for ACA from 4pm today through 4am Sunday, calling for 1"-2", maybe more in the favored NW facing slopes. This is just the first (and smaller) precip event, with the second starting in earnest Monday through Tuesday. My favored graphic models for the NAM and GFS had both been getting hot and heavy for the 7p run yesterday, both favoring 6-8" for ACA. For the 1a run today,the NAM backed off to 4" but the GFS, which has been the more reliable this season, remains in the 6-8" range. Note: these models show only a total (NAM is for 3 days, the GFS is for 5) and they don't break apart each event period. I would suspect at least the upper half of ACA stands to meet the advisory criteria later today/tonight, with the snow accumulations ramping up later on Monday.
A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from 12am through noon Sunday. Winds will blow 25-35mph at times, with gusts to 70mph in the highest elevations (a Cat 1 hurricane starts at 74mph). Wind chill values will range as low as minus 24 per the warning guidelines. Overnight lows will plunge to single digits....and as long as the wind keeps up it should keep lows from going below zero. If they slack off a while before daybreak, it will be colder.
I'll update later as or if needed, and probably post pictures of the snow totals after the next runtime.
Bob
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