FRIDAY 8PM UPDATE: CHANGES...

New year, first day dawn, 1-1-2023, from the end of Staymon

First and foremost:  the 'monster' totals in some models have scaled back to 'average' today.  Not that it won't happen, but that the potential has been downgraded a good bit.  Why?  Apparently the cold air will delay so that there is a longer period of rain-sleet-snow mix on warm ground, creating slush once the rate of precipitation outpaces the melting until the colder air gets in early Sunday morning.  That's for starters.

HOWEVER...however...for several days Haywood County specifically has been highlighted with the biggest snow totals of any place except for the northern NC Blue Ridge, so while many locations have scaled back today, I think we will still get a good dumping in ACA.  Down here at Clemson I still get WLOS, but while I have the luxury of focusing just on ACA, WLOS has to broad-brush stroke the regional forecast. Too bad, but I understand why.

WHAT:  We are under a Winter Storm Watch (click link) that will transition to a Warning at some point tomorrow.

HOW MUCH:  4"-10" of heavy wet snow with some sleet and maybe a thin ice layer.

TIMING:  Onset around darkfall and lasting through Sunday into Sunday night.  Surface temperatures will be everything.

TRAVEL:  At some point, it won't be safely possible on our mountain.  Apple Creek Road and side roads won't be plowed until the snow is pretty much done, so may not be done until Monday.  I'll relay what information I get when I get it.  I'll try to return to Asheville Sunday around 7pm with a 45' 53K-lb motorcoach, and at this time not convinced I'll be able to do that.  IF I make it, then I will try to get to Waynesville but at this time I hold no hope of being able to make it up to Staymon.  Just one of those things...

MY TAKE FOR ACA:  3-5" for lower ACA, and holding to the 5"-10" (up from my prior 8" high earlier) just because of Haywood being in a constant bullseye.

While Sunday will be a cold one, we'll have nightly re-freeze into the 20s each night with highs getting above freezing.  By the way, when your app tells you a high of "X" after a snow, if you have a solid snow pack, the albedo will lower that high by at least 6 degrees if not more, especially if you are in the shade.  Just sayin'...

I will have a small window to update if needed in the morning, but not again until this time Saturday night.  This might sound too obvious, but if you haven't already gotten a good supply of things, do it in the morning.  I would, just in case.  I really hate I won't be on the mountain for this one.

Bob