More rain, more 'wintry mix', less snow...that's the going forecast for most of western NC, which limits accumulations. The only problem is Haywood has had this bullseye which, although it's shrinking, still exists. Barely, though.
The track isn't the real culprit, just the slowness of cold air to move in and work down to lower elevations. Waynesville proper was 3"-4" on a National Weather Service graphic, and now it's down to <1", which I find odd since Haywood County is only in a Warning and that is not Warning criteria. The NWS says to hang onto the bigger totals for now....there is that oh-so fine line where rain turns to snow, and that wet snow piles up quickly. Asheville has been dialed back to 'skunk' category...snow will fall there in time, but it melts either on contact or shortly thereafter. Personally, I'm glad to hear that given my return trip.
In light of the newer model runs and trends and yaddah-yaddah, I'll keep lower ACA in a 1-3" range and the upper ACA in a 3"-6" range, knowing it could go either way. The uncertainty is high with all models, but I don't want us to get blindsided on the mountain. Temps rebound, so if there are accumulations, even with nightly re-freeze, we should see a fairly timely disappearance of the snow.
Bob
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