SNOW "EXPLAINER" AND THOUGHTS...

 While I have a bit of time, I wanted to share some background information for those that might find it interesting, pertaining to this particular snow system.

It's too early for any Winter Storm Watches or Warnings to be posted, but they will be soon enough.  Some of you may have see this 'explainer' of the difference between watches and warnings using tacos, so for your chuckle here it is...and it's quite accurate for tornados, but with Winter Weather it's more like "Tacos are immanent"!

Next is my artful rendition of what has been going on for most of this winter (red line low) versus what's coming in Saturday (yellow line low).  The red track brought in some cold air but limited moisture (outside of the one decent snow we've had to date)...but we will watch an upper level low kick south out of the Arklatex, kiss the Gulf of Mexico to pick up moisture, with the low intensifying as it reaches the SE Atlantic coast and turns NNE.  That will suck in the needed cold air and supply it with water.

Now for those "models".  There is the GFS, EURO, and the NAM that we mostly watch for winter events.  The EURO seems to handle snow better than the others, while the NAM usually under-performs with snow.  The GFS and EURO go out for longer time periods than the short-run NAM.  Add to that, different companies/scientists will use the model data and develop their own algorithms to enhance various factors, and they are all exceedingly complicated. 'Nuff said.

Here are the latest runs for the GFS and EURO on Sunday@ 10am, with the EURO being a bit heavier.  These numbers are on par with my earlier post...I neglected to mark ACA, but you can tell we're just to the top side of the "W-a" in Waynesville: (don't forget you can click to enlarge)

GFS 10am Sunday

EURO 10am Sunday

Now, the GFS has the snow machine tapering off to light snow/flurries through mid-day with little more accumulation, but the EURO cranks things up to the crippling 12"-15" range by 7pm:

EURO 7pm Sunday

At this time, the going forecast is that the low does not stagnate on the coast and begins its NNE move, precluding a Snowmageddon.  With that said, below is a model I have used for years and it is a GFS algorithm that has been going bonkers just like the new EURO.  Very reminiscent of what I saw on December 17, 2008, before we got slammed with 18". We're roughly the black dot.

E.B.W. GFS Thursday AM run

SOOooooo...The possibility of getting 'skunked' seems non-existent.  The bigger question is do we get just the moderate totals or the crippling ones?   I won't update again until Friday, and by the looks of my Friday schedule it won't be until later in the afternoon.  Stay tuned...

Bob