Please read the previous post for more information...I just wanted to update 'storm total potential', kinda sorta pulling all the recent trends, models, and notes from GSP office. Note that these are the numbers for ACA in particular, with the GFS being a bit discomforting. Both models are even bolder than before:
NAM: 8-12"
GFS: 10-15"
Solid 5.5" at 3:15pm on my deck.
bob
Showing posts with label snow 12-25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label snow 12-25. Show all posts
Saturday, December 25, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS: SAT NOON UPDATE
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY 6PM FOR ACA.
(UPDATE @1:50P: Just got off the phone with Chris and from time to time there have been a number of cars breached sideways in the road, with some hitting trees, etc., down approximate to his mail box. He advises that no one be trying to negotiate our mountain until it gets plowed/salted, and even then it will be tricky. I have no idea about particulars, but it is Christmas Day and plowers are few to begin with...have patience and just know that for the moment weather is shutting travel down for now.)
(UPDATE @1:50P: Just got off the phone with Chris and from time to time there have been a number of cars breached sideways in the road, with some hitting trees, etc., down approximate to his mail box. He advises that no one be trying to negotiate our mountain until it gets plowed/salted, and even then it will be tricky. I have no idea about particulars, but it is Christmas Day and plowers are few to begin with...have patience and just know that for the moment weather is shutting travel down for now.)
Working on 4" now and just got an update from GSP office on this storm....and they're concerned storm totals will be even higher for our area. The last 18-hours before this storm hit, the NAM and GFS came into more agreement with more agressive amounts for ACA (8-10"). If the driving low of this storm continues to track farther west as it curls up the coast, it could put us in the 12"+ category for a storm total...nightmares of last year, eh?
Spoke with Chris Martin earlier, and he said the road is extremely dangerous...he saw several close calls with accidents, and only one vehicle crawling up. At the moment I have canceled any effort of mine to make it down to pick up company, which as I write is still well east of Statesville. It looks pretty obvious we'll all be hunkering down for a few days.
Here is a helpful link that you can snoop around on and find out general highway conditions in NC:
NC DOT LINK
You can select a region, a particular highway, etc., and it color codes road conditions in real time, including working accidents, construction, etc. The 3 traffic cams just east of ACA haven't been working for quite some time, though. You can pan, zoom, do just about anything with the gridded map.
Anyway, travel out of here in almost any direction looks to be a HUGE problem, with heavier snow toward the TN line and increased snow totals into the Upstate of SC, which is I-26 and I-85. Horrible driving conditions that will only get worse here the next couple of days.
Updating from an earlier post, I have had excellent opportunity to use my new 36" wide Manplow pusher shovel, and it is by far the best $90 I've spent in a looooong time. Can't sing it's praises enough, and it has significantly speeded up keeping the driveway cleared...well, truth to be told, just two wide tire tracks as there is too much driveway to clear!
Updates as I get 'em. Stay warm and safe, y'all.
Bob (and Molly and Mercy)
WHITE CHRISTMAS: It's here
Sat. 730am
WINTER STORM WARNING for ACA through MONDAY 6PM. As far as that goes, the bulk of NC's 100 counties is under a Winter Storm Warning, as well, even most of the coast. As the models started to hint at yesterday, this storm system was and is deepening as it nears the SE coast, and is in perfect position with moisture and cold air to drop a lot of snow for a lot of folks, even outside the mountains.
NAM and GFS both are exactly the same for ACA at 8-10", with both showing a 20" bull's eye at places like Clingman's Dome, Leconte, Max Patch, Roan Highlands, Mitchell, etc. Snow will continue today and tonight, with periods of heavier snowfall, and then behind a cold front we'll have even colder air and more snow showers that can lay down white stuff pretty quickly...that will mostly be Sunday through Monday.
Don't guess there's a whole lot more to say at this point. Driveway is all white, though the snow didn't start too long ago....time to go have some coffee and enjoy the day for what it is: a White Christmas. I will say I will have to be driving down Apple Creek Road by noon today to try and pick some family up near Bojangles, so will give a report after I do so....HOPEfully successfully!
One more video for you that I've always loved...The Drifters singing a doo-wop version of White Christmas to a cute cartoon. Enjoy!
WINTER STORM WARNING for ACA through MONDAY 6PM. As far as that goes, the bulk of NC's 100 counties is under a Winter Storm Warning, as well, even most of the coast. As the models started to hint at yesterday, this storm system was and is deepening as it nears the SE coast, and is in perfect position with moisture and cold air to drop a lot of snow for a lot of folks, even outside the mountains.
NAM and GFS both are exactly the same for ACA at 8-10", with both showing a 20" bull's eye at places like Clingman's Dome, Leconte, Max Patch, Roan Highlands, Mitchell, etc. Snow will continue today and tonight, with periods of heavier snowfall, and then behind a cold front we'll have even colder air and more snow showers that can lay down white stuff pretty quickly...that will mostly be Sunday through Monday.
Don't guess there's a whole lot more to say at this point. Driveway is all white, though the snow didn't start too long ago....time to go have some coffee and enjoy the day for what it is: a White Christmas. I will say I will have to be driving down Apple Creek Road by noon today to try and pick some family up near Bojangles, so will give a report after I do so....HOPEfully successfully!
One more video for you that I've always loved...The Drifters singing a doo-wop version of White Christmas to a cute cartoon. Enjoy!
Friday, December 24, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 4
5:30pm
Posting this a little earlier...will be a couple of hours before the GFS data is crunched, but the NAM is showing some significant trend changes, as is the storm track/system overall.
White Christmas on tap. Oh yeah. However, amounts will remain limited until suppertime Christmas Day...an inch, two....but the system looks to be intensifying Saturday night through Sunday.
The NAM has gotten crazy hot and heavy on the high peaks in the Smokies, now pushing 20". ACA is now clearly in a 6-10" zone for the whole storm, which doesn't tail off until Monday. Just because I see this deepening trend doesn't mean I buy into it...and I do want to see the GFS data shortly. However, I've been having the nudges that the amounts will be heavier as opposed to lighter for this whole event. (click pic to enlarge...ACA is the asterisk)
With that said, I have to say that the amounts I listed on the prior post are minimums. I'm well above the "blue roof" and the 'mirror corner', and I sense this could be 7-8" for me. 4-6" down low, and I do think our top at 3900' could be pushing 10".
Too, strong winds kick in Sunday night and blow the snow around and freeze our noses off, which comes with the territory. I will post again in a few hours, but I just want to put new information out there for the taking...or not! :-)
Posting this a little earlier...will be a couple of hours before the GFS data is crunched, but the NAM is showing some significant trend changes, as is the storm track/system overall.
White Christmas on tap. Oh yeah. However, amounts will remain limited until suppertime Christmas Day...an inch, two....but the system looks to be intensifying Saturday night through Sunday.
The NAM has gotten crazy hot and heavy on the high peaks in the Smokies, now pushing 20". ACA is now clearly in a 6-10" zone for the whole storm, which doesn't tail off until Monday. Just because I see this deepening trend doesn't mean I buy into it...and I do want to see the GFS data shortly. However, I've been having the nudges that the amounts will be heavier as opposed to lighter for this whole event. (click pic to enlarge...ACA is the asterisk)
With that said, I have to say that the amounts I listed on the prior post are minimums. I'm well above the "blue roof" and the 'mirror corner', and I sense this could be 7-8" for me. 4-6" down low, and I do think our top at 3900' could be pushing 10".
Too, strong winds kick in Sunday night and blow the snow around and freeze our noses off, which comes with the territory. I will post again in a few hours, but I just want to put new information out there for the taking...or not! :-)
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 3
Things that look pretty clear as we head into a White Christmas here in ACA:
Light snow starts after midnight, with small accumulation likely by sunrise. Snow showers occur all day, Christmas Day, then overnight, through Sunday and Sunday night, we get into a 50-50 situation of hit and miss snow shower bands. This event will last a little longer than the initial 'looks'.
The expected snow totals are always like trying to nail down jello. The GFS continues (overall) to keep us in a 3-5" band for the whole shebang. However, it is keeping the Smokies in a 6-8" band, tops. The NAM, which I'm liking a bit more, has a super-tight banding like the last storm, keeping ACA in this 2-3" band, but jumping up significantly in a very short distance to over 14" on the 6,000' peaks in the Smokies. Even for I-40 at the TN line there could be 10+" of snow for this event.
I guess I can't help but to go with the NAM's overall pattern, but realize ACA is too close for comfort with the higher bands going 4-6". Heaven forbid we pick up more than that....but for a storm total I favor a 2-4" snow for ACA down low, and increasing to the 5-6" range closer to our top elevation at 3900'. Again, these amounts will be spread out over a 48-hour period, and we will not be having any freezing rain, etc., just snow.
As I post this around 8a, there are no official weather advisories hoisted yet...I'll add those with an update either this afternoon, or closer to supper time this evening.
For the mood, click on the video below to watch Bing Crosby singing "White Christmas" in the 1942 film...one of those songs surely going through most everyone's head. Enjoy.
Light snow starts after midnight, with small accumulation likely by sunrise. Snow showers occur all day, Christmas Day, then overnight, through Sunday and Sunday night, we get into a 50-50 situation of hit and miss snow shower bands. This event will last a little longer than the initial 'looks'.
The expected snow totals are always like trying to nail down jello. The GFS continues (overall) to keep us in a 3-5" band for the whole shebang. However, it is keeping the Smokies in a 6-8" band, tops. The NAM, which I'm liking a bit more, has a super-tight banding like the last storm, keeping ACA in this 2-3" band, but jumping up significantly in a very short distance to over 14" on the 6,000' peaks in the Smokies. Even for I-40 at the TN line there could be 10+" of snow for this event.
I guess I can't help but to go with the NAM's overall pattern, but realize ACA is too close for comfort with the higher bands going 4-6". Heaven forbid we pick up more than that....but for a storm total I favor a 2-4" snow for ACA down low, and increasing to the 5-6" range closer to our top elevation at 3900'. Again, these amounts will be spread out over a 48-hour period, and we will not be having any freezing rain, etc., just snow.
As I post this around 8a, there are no official weather advisories hoisted yet...I'll add those with an update either this afternoon, or closer to supper time this evening.
For the mood, click on the video below to watch Bing Crosby singing "White Christmas" in the 1942 film...one of those songs surely going through most everyone's head. Enjoy.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 2
Gave up waiting on the updated GFS run from 1pm today....but the models interestingly holding us to the 2-4" range in ACA Saturday through Monday....the NAM is holding us in that range, while the GFS has been fluctuating in the 1-3" vs. the 4-6" range...a bit on the wild side. The timing is the same, the better accumulating snows cranking up roughly around sunrise Christmas morning, which has been the 'norm' from the 'get-go'.
You never take as 'gospel' what models show, as they are nothing more than that, models. Trends speak more words....and overall it seems the 2-4" range is likely. Oh, and along with sub-freezing temps until Wednesday, at the earliest. Wheeeee.
So I'll update with a Christmas Eve forecast sometime Friday morning. I suppose that somewhere in the back of my mind is the potential for more than the models indicate. The really heavy snows are up in WV and KY from this storm, but our 'flow' is forecast to be more N and NW, unlike the limiting W winds from the last system. N, NW flow opens the door for more ACA snow totals, that's all.
Happy HO-HO! Updating Friday morning sometime....
bob
You never take as 'gospel' what models show, as they are nothing more than that, models. Trends speak more words....and overall it seems the 2-4" range is likely. Oh, and along with sub-freezing temps until Wednesday, at the earliest. Wheeeee.
So I'll update with a Christmas Eve forecast sometime Friday morning. I suppose that somewhere in the back of my mind is the potential for more than the models indicate. The really heavy snows are up in WV and KY from this storm, but our 'flow' is forecast to be more N and NW, unlike the limiting W winds from the last system. N, NW flow opens the door for more ACA snow totals, that's all.
Happy HO-HO! Updating Friday morning sometime....
bob
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 1
Nice mini-layer of snow dust this morning...and one biting wind! Swept portions of my deck and drive and the fluff goes right off with no underlayer to speak of.
I'm blending the nuances between the 8p WED and 1a THU runs, which have only minor variations. The 1pm WED runs had both pulling back to 1-2", but I take that as an aberration of sorts.
Storm totals for ACA SAT25/SUN26:
NAM: 2-4"
GFS: 4-6"
Basically, snow amounts drop off a good bit as you head away from the TN border, which both models indicate. ACA is on the 3" dividing line with the NAM, and 5" line with the GFS.
While flakes can start overnight into early Christmas morning, steadier snow should start Christmas Day close to 7a and go all day....Sunday may see a round of snow shower bursts early, then just passing flurries or light snow showers.
The one aspect I will like about this system better than the last will be the absence of freezing rain and sleet. This system should be all snow for ACA.
Setting aside the complications for those that need to travel, and to get services like plowing, salting, etc., the idea of a White Christmas is kind of neat. Hasn't happened in Asheville since 1981...too, I happen to be a Christmas baby, so this will be one of my very few White Birthdays that I can remember.
Will more than likely post again something within a stone's throw of suppertime this evening.
bob
I'm blending the nuances between the 8p WED and 1a THU runs, which have only minor variations. The 1pm WED runs had both pulling back to 1-2", but I take that as an aberration of sorts.
Storm totals for ACA SAT25/SUN26:
NAM: 2-4"
GFS: 4-6"
Basically, snow amounts drop off a good bit as you head away from the TN border, which both models indicate. ACA is on the 3" dividing line with the NAM, and 5" line with the GFS.
While flakes can start overnight into early Christmas morning, steadier snow should start Christmas Day close to 7a and go all day....Sunday may see a round of snow shower bursts early, then just passing flurries or light snow showers.
The one aspect I will like about this system better than the last will be the absence of freezing rain and sleet. This system should be all snow for ACA.
Setting aside the complications for those that need to travel, and to get services like plowing, salting, etc., the idea of a White Christmas is kind of neat. Hasn't happened in Asheville since 1981...too, I happen to be a Christmas baby, so this will be one of my very few White Birthdays that I can remember.
Will more than likely post again something within a stone's throw of suppertime this evening.
bob
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS ON TAP
Likin' this 48 degrees here at 615a...alas, here we go again, on our winter rollercoaster.
Cutting to the chase, it will be a white Christmas here in ACA. Friday afternoon will have highs in the mid and upper 30s, but overnight and before sunrise Christmas Day the light snow should start and then pretty much keep it up through the day Saturday, tapering to snow showers for Sunday. Once temps drop below freezing overnight Friday, they won't be above freezing until Tuesday, most likely...and that will depend on snow amounts as temps stay a handful of degrees colder over snowpack.
No pre-snow rain or freezing rain or sleet in this incoming system...just ground/road temps cooling down, which should hopefully keep any icy layer under the snow held to a minimum.
Still a little early, but here's how the two models I follow are stacking up:
NAM 1-2"
GFS 4-5"
So far this 'winter', the first good snow I gave a tie to the models, as they were in good agreement. The NAM did better on the last system, keeping ACA amounts limited, but hot and heavy in the Smokies. Again, this is really early, so I'll just watch the trends in the model runs (x4 per day, fyi) and update Thursday morning.
Passing on a snow gizmo I just ordered that is perfect for my driveway, and look forward to using it this weekend. Could be some of you are looking for something like it. It's a 36" blade with a lawnmower type handle for pushing snow...called a "Manplow". Should significantly cut my time shoveling.
Stay tuned,
Bob Child
Cutting to the chase, it will be a white Christmas here in ACA. Friday afternoon will have highs in the mid and upper 30s, but overnight and before sunrise Christmas Day the light snow should start and then pretty much keep it up through the day Saturday, tapering to snow showers for Sunday. Once temps drop below freezing overnight Friday, they won't be above freezing until Tuesday, most likely...and that will depend on snow amounts as temps stay a handful of degrees colder over snowpack.
No pre-snow rain or freezing rain or sleet in this incoming system...just ground/road temps cooling down, which should hopefully keep any icy layer under the snow held to a minimum.
Still a little early, but here's how the two models I follow are stacking up:
NAM 1-2"
GFS 4-5"
So far this 'winter', the first good snow I gave a tie to the models, as they were in good agreement. The NAM did better on the last system, keeping ACA amounts limited, but hot and heavy in the Smokies. Again, this is really early, so I'll just watch the trends in the model runs (x4 per day, fyi) and update Thursday morning.
Passing on a snow gizmo I just ordered that is perfect for my driveway, and look forward to using it this weekend. Could be some of you are looking for something like it. It's a 36" blade with a lawnmower type handle for pushing snow...called a "Manplow". Should significantly cut my time shoveling.
Stay tuned,
Bob Child
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