Gave up waiting on the updated GFS run from 1pm today....but the models interestingly holding us to the 2-4" range in ACA Saturday through Monday....the NAM is holding us in that range, while the GFS has been fluctuating in the 1-3" vs. the 4-6" range...a bit on the wild side. The timing is the same, the better accumulating snows cranking up roughly around sunrise Christmas morning, which has been the 'norm' from the 'get-go'.
You never take as 'gospel' what models show, as they are nothing more than that, models. Trends speak more words....and overall it seems the 2-4" range is likely. Oh, and along with sub-freezing temps until Wednesday, at the earliest. Wheeeee.
So I'll update with a Christmas Eve forecast sometime Friday morning. I suppose that somewhere in the back of my mind is the potential for more than the models indicate. The really heavy snows are up in WV and KY from this storm, but our 'flow' is forecast to be more N and NW, unlike the limiting W winds from the last system. N, NW flow opens the door for more ACA snow totals, that's all.
Happy HO-HO! Updating Friday morning sometime....
bob
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