FRIDAY 11:30pm UPDATE: SNOW AND ROADS

7AM UPDATE:  The NWS Warning has been extended to 9am...upstream snow bands in TN are coming right at us.  I have about 5" here at the end of Staymon.  If our plower reads this, I know you need to turn around at the foot of my driveway, but as I type my car may well be in your way.  I will work on getting it moved in a couple of hours.  To all, it's 14 degrees here and keep in mind that even after plowing the roads here will be dangerously slick as traditional road salt won't work in these temperatures.  My -5 degree magnesium salts will, so I guess I'd better get to work and move my car!   Wheeee......NOT.

(original post ~11:30pm): I came back much later than expected to ACA tonight....once I hit I-40 West in Haywood County, the interstate was lightly covered in snow.  At Exit 27, more of the same.  At Lake J, the right lane was somewhat clear, but the left snow-covered....and Mauney Cove was 100% snow covered.  Apple Creek Road was more of the same, and the depth of the snow increased as I drove up, along with the myriad squiggle tire tracks of 2-wheel drive cars (or AWD?) that never made it to where they were heading.   

Even I started slipping at the very top of Staymon before it flattens to the left, but then made it to the bottom of my driveway that I knew was my dead end for the night.  Yep, just a 200' walk home, no complaints.  

The wind is cranking up, as well.  Down to 21 degrees at the end of Staymon so far.  Approcahing 4" of new snow as I type.... and the snow ain't goin' nowhere (still falling some).  The roads in ACA are snow-covered and SLICK, so please be extra careful.  More Saturday....just wanted to get this up for those of you with "Enquiring Minds".  :-)

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING...WITH A TWIST

Yes, I was in shorts...I'm a few fries short of a Happy Meal!

ACA is under a WINTER STORM WARNING (click link) from 1pm Friday until 7am Saturday morning.  Heaviest amounts (5-8") should stay along and near the TN border in the high country above 4,000'.  We are being put in the 3-5" range for the upper half of ACA, with 1-3" in the lower half of ACA (in an Advisory, not a Warning).

The 'twist' is the bitterly cold, fast-moving air that crashes in with the snow.  Here at the end of Staymon, I finally reached 40 degrees just a little bit ago, but the ground is cold and largely snow-covered thanks to our NE exposure.  While the precipitation may be liquid or a mix early on, it will quickly go to snow.  When it does, it will stick and stay.

With single digits forecast for lows Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning, don't look for good roads up in ACA for a while.  We homeowners can go to Lowe's or Walmart and buy our bags of -10 to -20 degrees ice melters, but road salt that is spread doesn't work below 25 degrees, unless it's in full sun.  Should we get several inches and it gets scraped, the salt put down won't be doing anything until it warms some.  Have patience, and be very careful.  

Wind chills will be below zero Friday night, so be prepared to bundle up when you head out.  This is one fast, bitter shot of arctic air.  If it makes you feel any better, the coldest I've recorded here was -9 degrees...at least we don't have that.  You're welcome.

I'll probably update and tweak tomorrow closer to lunch...I have two problematic charters Friday and Saturday that I need to closely assess.  Nothing worse than not being able to get back home and having to walk up the mountain in this bitter cold.  Wheeeeeee.   NOT.

Bob

ULTRA-LIGHT SNOW COATING ALL SURFACES...

 Per the NWS, there is only a 20% chance for light snow today....but it's been 100% for a while up on Staymon.  A Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) was only recently posted for us, calling for light snow and light accumulations possible through tonight.  Earlier, I did go into town and back up, and didn't slip one bit...but if this keeps accumulating, beware the 1/2" and thicker snow as the weight of a vehicle could cause sliding.  The residual salt on the road should help, but all surfaces are white.  And we're flying blind in this as this type of situation doesn't show up on radar.  

(click to enlarge)

The hoarfrost in the upper half of ACA is gorgeous!  Should hang around a good while as this is a very cold day with a couple of really cold nights ahead...with single digits possible.

If I come across any updates or other information, I'll put it up.  I am hitting the road around 1pm, and will be pretty much unable to communicate after that.

Bob

MONDAY UPDATE....

Our Winter Storm Warning has been extended until 6pm, but it's a moot point as our flurries are done.  I tallied 14.5" officially at the end of Staymon, but as you can hunt around on this INTERACTIVE MAP, there were some impressive totals from Beech Mountain to Saluda/Flat Rock to Haywood, of course...with a lot of shoveling to do. (Map may open with a world view, so just zoom in to western NC).

The plow is supposedly 'incoming' this afternoon.  Apple Creek Road is snow-covered, of course...I'll post any info as I get it.  Chris Martin (211 Apple Creek Road) wanted me to post that anyone needing to use their driveway to please do so, and to pull up toward the garage to maximize room.  As I cleared my driveway, the quality of snow was extremely fine, and slick once you stepped on a thin layer of it and pressed it down.  I can only imagine a car would be prone to sliding easily once snow cover is thinned down and before salt can work it's magic.

The wind field behind this exiting system rolled in this morning and should calm down after sunset.  So far the power has stayed on, thankfully.  Here are some useful links if you don't have them already:

ACA Facebook page:  

https://www.facebook.com/groups/265323127798634

Duke Energy outage map:

https://outagemap.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/ncsc

Not that anyone is raring to see more snow, but we may get a few more inches Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.  More on that Wednesday morning.  Temps should get above freezing tomorrow, but refreeze is in our forecast every night.  Black ice will be a serious concern for a good while.

I'll update with any other pertinent travel information as I get it.  Stay tuned.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING...NO, REALLY...

 Snow is coming, and quite a bit.  First, here is the WINTER STORM WARNING from the NWS (National Weather Service).  Click HERE to read the official notice.

When I say a foot of snow is likely in ACA, whether it's 10" or 15", it's a LOT of snow.  While there may be periods of sleet and possibly freezing rain to knock the total down, we are in for a solid snow event to eventually set up, nonetheless.  It's possible we see some flakes this afternoon, but the bulwark of the snow arrives midnight-ish and falls through the day on Sunday.  I will be driving back up the mountain tonight around 10pm, and will update here if needed.

We have most of today to get whatever provisions are needed...this will also be a windy event, especially on the backside, so be prepared for power outages, as well.  This snow is expected to have a high water content, hence the big totals, which also burdens weak trees.

Below are the Friday PM runs for 6pm Sunday, with ACA being the white dot.  The EURO and GFS are the favored models, though I should add the NAM has us only in the 3-5" range, but I didn't include that graphic. Click to enlarge.

EURO Friday PM run

GFS Friday PM run

GFS Event Total Friday PM run

Bob

'DUCKY' TODAY, 'FOWL' THIS WEEKEND

Today will be a nice day in comparison to our chill of late. Last week I ventured to Lake Junaluska, but my 'models' were a bit far out and not as sharp as I'd like.  Anyway, the top 3 are Ring-necked drakes, but the bottom one....it came flying in from my left all alone....as best as I can tell it's a juvenile female Pied-bill Grebe.  Supposedly they are around here in the winter, but I've never seen one that I remember. My day's victory.  :-)

I did just read that Lake J will soon be drained for a third year in a row for silt removal in the uppper basin.  While a necessary evil, I can tell you from my experience that the numbers of migratory flyway ducks there have plummetted as a result.  The flocks of Canvasbacks, Redheads, Scaups, and throngs of Coots haven't been back...just the limited group of Ring-necks and a few pairs of Buffleheads, as well as our year-rounders.  Now to the weather...

We could get a light coating of snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with a cold front dropping our temps behind it.  I don't anticipate any issues on our roads, given the relative warmth.  I'll be driving up around 130-2am Friday morning, so if I see any issues I'll make a quick post when I get home.

While we dodged the proverbial bullet on the first two 'snows' (not sure I can call the second event much of one!), late Saturday through Sunday we could well be in for a barn-burner.  Unlike our 'NW flow' events, a classic Colorado-to-Gulf of Mexico low is poised to swing up through Georgia.  That immediately means more moisture...and with a Great Lakes high in place, the necessary cold air will be in place, certainly overnight Saturday through most of Sunday.  Saturday may start off as a wintry mix for a while, all of this subject to changes this early.  Just a heads up for now.

Initial maps are coming in VERY heavy, so I'll watch the trend.  Here is the latest from the Tuesday PM GFS model run (ACA being the black dot).  'Yikes!', if it comes to fruition...1.5' of snow would keep us up on the mountain for a while.  It was an 18" snow many years back that had me start this blog as the same amounts were popping up, and it came to pass one week before Christmas.  I'll update Friday afternoon with the latest details, amounts, and timing.

Bob

GOOD AND COLD

(cell phone shot)

Thanks to sublimation, what minimal snow and ice formed yesterday, a great deal sublimated in last night's relatively frigid, dry air.  With those 'right' conditions, the solid water skips the liquid phase and goes straight to gas/vapor.  Poof, gone...my driveway was clear and what I drove on Apple Creek was similar. I'm good with that!

Now, if only today's internet repair is successful...

bob