Today will be a nice day in comparison to our chill of late. Last week I ventured to Lake Junaluska, but my 'models' were a bit far out and not as sharp as I'd like. Anyway, the top 3 are Ring-necked drakes, but the bottom one....it came flying in from my left all alone....as best as I can tell it's a juvenile female Pied-bill Grebe. Supposedly they are around here in the winter, but I've never seen one that I remember. My day's victory. :-)
I did just read that Lake J will soon be drained for a third year in a row for silt removal in the uppper basin. While a necessary evil, I can tell you from my experience that the numbers of migratory flyway ducks there have plummetted as a result. The flocks of Canvasbacks, Redheads, Scaups, and throngs of Coots haven't been back...just the limited group of Ring-necks and a few pairs of Buffleheads, as well as our year-rounders. Now to the weather...
We could get a light coating of snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with a cold front dropping our temps behind it. I don't anticipate any issues on our roads, given the relative warmth. I'll be driving up around 130-2am Friday morning, so if I see any issues I'll make a quick post when I get home.
While we dodged the proverbial bullet on the first two 'snows' (not sure I can call the second event much of one!), late Saturday through Sunday we could well be in for a barn-burner. Unlike our 'NW flow' events, a classic Colorado-to-Gulf of Mexico low is poised to swing up through Georgia. That immediately means more moisture...and with a Great Lakes high in place, the necessary cold air will be in place, certainly overnight Saturday through most of Sunday. Saturday may start off as a wintry mix for a while, all of this subject to changes this early. Just a heads up for now.
Initial maps are coming in VERY heavy, so I'll watch the trend. Here is the latest from the Tuesday PM GFS model run (ACA being the black dot). 'Yikes!', if it comes to fruition...1.5' of snow would keep us up on the mountain for a while. It was an 18" snow many years back that had me start this blog as the same amounts were popping up, and it came to pass one week before Christmas. I'll update Friday afternoon with the latest details, amounts, and timing.
Bob
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