I hope everyone has enjoyed the holidays as we now enter 2022. It's hard to believe that we had a nice snowfall Christmas a year ago....and here most of us are out and about in shorts. Not for long...
We will finally be subject to temperatures and weather conditions befitting this time of year, all starting Sunday night. An approaching cold front will not only bring us increasing rain chances (and maybe a few thunderstorms) as Sunday progresses before the cold air catches up and transitions the rain to a wintry mix and then over to snow Sunday night into Monday morning. More in a moment...
The winds have been howling since before daybreak Saturday, and will stay frisky. Hopefully the somewhat recently cleared power line rights of way will help us avoid power outages from falling trees/limbs. Temperatures will stay unseasonably mild until the cold arrives Sunday night, so prepare for a few days of much colder temperatures.
As with just about every snow event we have, especially a northwest flow event like we have tomorrow night, there will be a split of sorts between what I call "upper" Apple Creek versus "lower" Apple Creek, with the dividing line around 3,500 feet elevation, which for all practical purposes is the 'blue roof' house on Apple Creek Road.
For some on the mountain, this may be your first Apple Creek winter event. Road conditions are watched very closely and can be extremely treacherous very quickly. You've seen the plastic HOA tubs up and down Apple Creek Road...those are salt containers that are there for use after the road has been plowed and salted to help treat stubborn icy areas. Even something as little as 1/4-1/2" of snow can turn to ice under the weight of a vehicle and cause loss of control very quickly. Many portions of the road are deceptively steep, and once you lose traction you have to hold on tight for whatever is ahead. All that to say use extreme caution if you have to travel when roads are snow covered. 2-wheel drive (even front wheel drive) vehicles rarely can negotiate Apple Creek road up or down in most winter events.
SOOoooo.....tomorrow night. Most models hold off a transition until midnight or shortly thereafter. The odd-model out is the oft used GFS which has it transitioning around 10pm. There will most likely be a period of a couple of hours of good snowfall before going over to light snow and flurries before tailing off Monday morning. When you wake up, temps will be in the 20s and stay in the 30s for the high Monday. Winds will be more gentle, thankfully.
If the transition occurs ahead of schedule, we could be in for a nice snow event. Models dealing with mostly snow have us in the 4"-6" range, but I don't see that happening. At the moment, I'm going 1" to 2" for upper ACA and 1/2"-1" for our lower section, given the delayed transition to snow with somewhat limited moisture in place.
For now, I just wanted to crawl out of my cave and get this post up. More than likely I'll update Sunday afternoon with any changes I see. As far as my mention of a coyote, I put up a trail camera recently just 20 feet off of my deck which opens up to extensive woods. Around 12:15am 12-27-21, an apparently well-fed coyote passed by. They're here, they've been here, and they'll always be around here. Make no mistake: they will have their way with any animal they can find, so take heed.
With the mild weather this fall, my regular ol' bear made an appearance November 18th, sporting an enlarged waistline. I hope he's much sleepier by now. :-)
Stay tuned, y'all!
Bob
Thanks for your information, Bob!
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