The National Weather Service has upgraded our watch to a warning this morning. Rain changes over to snow tonight and the ol' snow shower machine keeps flowing in from TN through Wednesday. The past few of these events just kept putting snow down, especially above the blue roof.
The warning officially is for widespread 4-6", with 2-4" in valleys, and 6-9" on the highest ridges along the TN border. Contrast that with a 'first' that I've seen in the 4 years or so I've been keeping this blog...
My two graphical models are non-NWS products...the data going into the algorithms is, the NAM and GFS data sets, but the graphic was created by someone in the private sector. The GFS has performed very well this winter, and the NAM far less so unless it agreed with the GFS. For this incoming event, the two have agreed and remained consistent through the model runs every 6 hours: just 2" for ACA. (1245pm update: the GFS has scaled back even more for ACA to just 1", NAM still 2-3"...this morning's run data)
First time I've had both models remain limited/ho-hum, with NWS forecasting for significantly more snow. As the old saying goes, prepare for the worst and hope for the best...but I'm very curious to see what the final tally will be. Heck, even 1" of snow messes up our roads, but 5" would be a bigger problem. Too, no sense plowing/treating 'til all is said and done Wednesday night, so Wednesday will be a good day to hunker down.
Once we go below 32 degrees just short of midnight tonight, we won't hit 32 again until Thursday afternoon, and maybe just barely. However, by Friday, highs go well above freezing for days. And for good ol' FYI, the storm's bullseye is still showing up for NW Virginia/NE WV in the 2' range. Yikes.
bob
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