Batten down the hatches, be prepared for the worst, and hope for the best. The problem with spring systems is that the parent air mass being pulled in is warmer, and warmer air holds more water. The air being wrapped in from the north is very cold, so when the atmospheric sponge gets squeezed out, the amounts can be higher than in a cold dead of winter scenario. Thus is our situation.
We were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning effective from 2am Monday through 6pm Tuesday. This will be a protracted upslope flow from the W/NW from TN, so the high state ridgelines (Smokies, Max Patch, Roan Highlands, etc.) will bring home the bacon with 8-12". I should add the warning is for ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500', our Moskos/blue roof house. Below that elevation is a Winter Weather Advisory.
In the advisory, the National Weather Service (NWS) is calling for up to 4-6" down low. and 5-8" up high in the warning zone. Hmmmmm...the models have been trending higher, and there is one good point and that is the recent rain and 'warmth' has melted all our snow, and today's high in the upper 40s for the most part has provided some heat for the ground and roads. With that said...
Through the latest runs I look at, the NAM has put ACA in the 3-4" range, and the GFS in the 2-4" range. The GFS has been easily the most accurate this year, but both have underdone the past two modest events. That concerns me because the NWS has pretty good eyeballs on this storm, and where there is smoke, there is usually fire.
I don't expect much snow when I wake up, as the bulk of moisture doesn't get here until Monday afternoon and through the overnight, so be prepared for travel here to go down the dumpers as Monday wears on, continuing through all of Tuesday.
The one other issue is the strong winds that are forecast to be blowing in with all of this...enough to bring some weaker trees down and make for potential power outages. Just FYI.
I'm back on the mountain, so will provide observations in the morning and beyond. Feel free to do the same. :-)
Bob
While just a dusting thus (expected, my deck is bumpy icy and very slick....so this snow will have an icy underbelly. Large batch of moisture just hours WNW of here in TN. This will be a protracted event through at least Tuesday evening. 27 degrees here at the end of Staymon.
ReplyDeleteIf I didn't know better, I'd think Apple Creek Road is fine at this moment...my driveway that was covered hours ago is totally clear, thanks to yesterday's heat soaked in. Plenty more time for snow, but this is good news...my deck still has the icy bottom, though. 1.5-2" so far.
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