The National Weather Service has already given an official 'heads up' for what will turn into a Winter Storm Warning Tuesday (or possibly downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory...). It's in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday, and the snow will be proceeded by a good bit of rain.
Early Tuesday morning, say between 3a and 7am, there could be some freezing rain here in ACA. Then all rain should fall, resolving that potential issue. Rain is forecast to transition to snow sometime around 10p Tuesday night, and continue with 'likely' chances through Wednesday.
Amounts: the watch is for 7-9" at the higher ridge tops closer to the TN border, with 3-5" forecast for the valleys...that would interpolate to significant snow for all of ACA, with higher amounts toward the top, of course. However...
However, at this moment, my two graphical models I track are both showing just 2-3"...but I'm guessing they need to 'catch up' to other data and models since the NWS has this 'high confidence' forecast (or not?). No doubt this will be a nasty storm for the mid-Atlantic...the current bulls eye is in NW Virginia where I see totals in the 20-24" range.
Suffice it to say travel in ACA will deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday, and that roads most likely will not be treated until we're done with this event, which could be late Wednesday. If the snow falls directly behind the rain, that will make for an icy bottom coat, making travel a bit more troublesome.
Good news a warm up starts almost immediately as we head into the weekend.
Updates will be posted as needed.
Bob
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